A complete up-to-date list of my papers is available at: http://www.profpaulharper.com/home/research/publications

Editing

Invited special issue guest editor of:

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2009, Special Supplement (May), with Sally Brailsford and Duncan Shaw. “Milestones in OR”.

International Journal of Healthcare Information Systems and Informatics, 2008, 3(4), with Frédérique Laforest. “Joint advances in Information Systems and Operational Research applied to Health Care”.

European Journal of Operational Research, 2008, 185(3), with Sally Brailsford. “OR in Health”.

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2007, 58(2), with Sally Brailsford. “Operational Research in Health”.

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 2005, 16(3), with Rose Baker. “Mathematical Modelling for Healthcare Management”.

Books

Operational Research Informing National Health Policy. Paul Harper, Vincent Knight, Israel Vieira, Janet Williams (eds). School of Mathematics, Cardiff University ISBN: .978-0-9569158-0-1

Operational Research for Health Policy: Making Better Decisions. Sally Brailsford and Paul Harper (eds). Peter Lang. ISBN: 978-3-03911-093-3.

Refereed Papers
In preparation/under review

Knight VA and Harper PR, “The Impact of Choice on Public Services”. European Journal of Operational Research (under review).

Gallagher J, Lim Z and Harper P, “Workforce skill-mix: modelling the potential for dental therapists in state funded primary dental care”. International Dental Journal (under review)

Smith HK and Harper PR, “Dynamic modeling of the spatio-temporal growth of trust: sustainability of a rural community health center”. (in preparation).

Published/Accepted

Smith HK, Harper PR and Potts CN, “Bicriteria efficiency/equity hierarchical location models”. To appear in Journal of the Operational Research Society

Knight VA, Harper PR and Smith L (2012), “Ambulance Allocation for Maximal Survival with Heterogeneous Outcome Measures”. OMEGA - The International Journal of Management Science. DOI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048312000436

Knight VA and Harper PR (2012), “Modelling Emergency Medical Services with Phase-type Distributions”. Health Systems. http://www.palgrave-journals.com/hs/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/hs20121a.html

Fetta AG, Harper PR, Knight VA, Vieira IT and Williams JE (2012), “On the Peter Principle: An agent based investigation into the consequential effects of social networks and behavioural factors”. Physica A. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2011.12.053.

Harper PR, Knight VA and Marshall AH (2012), “Discrete Conditional Phase-type Models Utilising Classification Trees: Application to Modelling Health Service Capacities”. European Journal of Operational Research. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.035,

Brailsford SC, Harper PR and Sykes J (2012), “Incorporating Human Behaviour in Simulation Models of Screening for Breast Cancer”. European Journal of Operational Research. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.041.

Sally Brailsford, Timothy Bolt, Giovanni Bucci, Thierry Chaussalet, Con Connell, Paul Harper, Jonathan Klein, Martin Pitt and Melinda Taylor (2012), “Overcoming the barriers: a qualitative study of simulation adoption in the NHS”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. DOI:10.1057/jors.2011.130.

Williams J, Gillard J, Harper PR and Knight VA (2012), “Forecasting Welsh Ambulance Demand Using Singular Spectrum Analysis”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. DOI: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/jors2011160a.html

Harper PR, Kleinman ER, Gallagher JE and Knight VA (2012), “Cost-effective Workforce Planning: Optimising the Dental Team Skill-mix for England”. To appear in Journal of Enterprise Information Management.

Penn M, Potts CN and Harper PR (2011), “Hospital Operating Theatre Scheduling - Advanced Booking of Individual Patients. In Proceedings of the 37th ORAHS Conference, Cardiff, July 2011 - Operational Research Informing National Health Policy. Paul Harper, Vincent Knight, Israel Vieira, Janet Williams (eds). School of Mathematics, Cardiff University ISBN: .978-0-9569158-0-1

Gyuchan T Jun, Zoe Morris, Tillal Eldabi, Paul Harper, Aisha Naseer, Brijesh.Patel Patel and John P Clarkson (2011), “Development of a Modelling and Simulation Method Comparison and Selection Framework for Health Services Management”. BMC Health Services Research. 11: 108. DOI:10.1186/1472-6963-11-108

Israel T. Vieira, Valter de Senna, Paul R. Harper and Arjan K. Shahani (2011), "Tumour Doubling Times and the Length Bias in Breast Cancer Screening Programmes", Health Care Management Science. 14(2):203-11. DOI: 10.1007/s10729-011-9156-9

Vieira IT, Harper PR, Cheng RCH and de Senna V (2010), “Small World Network Models of the Dynamics of HIV Infection”. Annals of Operational Research. 178: 173-200.

Harper PR, Powel NP and Williams JE (2010). “Modelling the Size and Skill-mix of Hospital Nursing Teams”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 61: 768-779.

Williams JL, Gillard JW, Harper PR and Knight VA (2010), “Forecasting Welsh Ambulance Demand Using Singular Spectrum Analysis” In Operations Research for Patient-Centered Health Care Delivery, proceedings of the 36th International ORAHS Conference (Genova).

Penn ML, Potts CN and Harper PR (2010), “Developing a Multi-Methodology Operating Theatre Scheduling Support System”. In the conference proceedings of the IMA Sixth International Conference on Quantitative Modelling in the Management of Health Care, March 2010.

Kleinman ER, Harper PR and Gallagher JE (2009). ”Trends in NHS Primary Dental Care for Older People in England: implications for the future”. Gerodontology 26 (3): 193 - 201

Brailsford, S., Harper, P., Patel, B., and Pitt, M. (2009) “An Analysis of the Academic Literature on Simulation and Modeling in Healthcare”. Journal of Simulation. 3: 130-140.

Smith HK, Laporte G and Harper PR (2009). “Locational Analysis: Highlights of Growth to Maturity”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 60: S140-S148.

Smith H.K, Harper P.R and Potts C.N (2009). “Planning Sustainable Community Health Schemes in Rural Areas of Developing Countries”. European Journal of Operational Research. 193: 768-777.

Harper PR and Leite Jr E (2008), “TreeWorks: Advances in Scalable Decision Trees”. International Journal of Healthcare Information Systems and Informatics 3 (4).

Arisha A, Thorwarth M and Harper (2009), “Simulation Model to Investigate Flexible Workload Management for Healthcare and Servicescape Environment”. In the conference proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, December 2009.

Smith HK and Harper PR (2008). “Location Modelling for Community Healthcare Facilities”. Proceedings of the 33rd Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (St Etienne).

Salustri L, Sbandi P, Brailsford S, Brocato R, De Angelis V, Harper P and Lasinio G (2007). “Simulation Modelling of a Major Accident and Emergency Department in Rome”. Proceedings of the 31st Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (Southampton).

Evenden D, Harper PR, Brailsford SC and Harindra V (2006), “Improving the Cost-Effectiveness of Chlamydia Screening with Targeted Screening Strategies”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 57: 1400-1412.

Harper PR and Winslett DJ (2006), “Classification Trees: A Possible Method for Maternity Risk Assessment”. European Journal of Operational Research 169: 146-156.

Harper PR, Brailsford SC, Evenden D, Harinda V (2006), “ Combined Geomapping, Statistical Risk Grouping and Computer Simulation for Modelling Chlamydia Infection Dynamics and Screening Strategies”. Proceedings of the 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (Stockholm).

Powell NH and Harper PR (2006), “Modelling for the Reprovision and Redesign of Intermediate Care Services in the UK – a local Example”. Proceedings of the 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (Stockholm).

Brailsford SC, Harper PR and Sykes J (2006). “Incorporating human behavior in healthcare simulation models”. Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference. Vols 1-5, pp 466-472.

Harper PR (2005), “Combining Data Mining Tools with Health Care Models for Improved Understanding of Health Processes and Resource Utilisation”. Clinical and Investigative Medicine. 28: 338-341.

Rauner MS, Harper PR and Schwarz B (2005), “Economic Impact of Occupational Injuries: Resource Allocation for Prevention Programs”. Central European Journal of OR. 3(4).

Evenden D, Harper PR, Brailsford SC and Harindra V (2005), “System Dynamics modelling of Chlamydia infection for screening intervention planning and cost benefit estimation.” IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 16: 265-279.

Harper PR and Jones SK (2005), “Mathematical Models for the Early Detection and Treatment of Colorectal Cancer”. Health Care Management Science. 8: 101-109

Harper PR, Phillips S and Gallagher J (2005), “Regional Planning of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Services”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 56: 134-144.

Harper PR, de Senna V, Vieira IT and Shahani AK (2005), “A Genetic Algorithm for the Project Assignment Problem”. Computers & Operations Research. 32: 1255-1265.

Harper PR, Shahani AK, Gallagher JE and Bowie C (2005), “Planning Health Services with Explicit Geographical Considerations: a Stochastic Location-Allocation Approach”. OMEGA: International Journal of Management Science. 33: 141-152.

Harper PR (2005), “A Review and Comparison of Classification Algorithms for Medical Decision Making”. Health Policy. 71: 315-331.

Bowie C, Duff C, Harper PR, Shahani AK, Wilderspin H and Yates J (2004), “Long Term Planning to Meet Government Coronary Heart Disease Revascularisation Targets”. Health Services Management Research. 17: 132-140.

Ball C, Walker G, Harper P, Sanders D, McElligott M (2004), “Moving on from 'patient dependency' and 'nursing workload' to managing risk in critical care”. Intensive and Critical Care Nursing. 20: 62-68.

Harper PR and Pitt M (2004), “On the Challenges of Healthcare Modelling and a Proposed Project Life-Cycle for Successful Implementation”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 55: 657-661.

Harper PR, Yates J, Wilderspin H, Shahani AK, Bowie C and Duff C (2004), ”Population Needs Assessment and Access Modelling for Cardiac Services”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 55: 529-534.

Sykes J, Harper PR and Brailsford SC (2004), “Incorporating Behaviour in Health Care Discrete Event Simulation Models”. Proceedings of UK Simulation Conference (UKSim04) (Oxford)

Powell NH and Harper PR (2004), “Workforce Modelling in Healthcare”. Proceedings of UK Simulation Conference (UKSim04) (Oxford)

Harper PR, Sayyad MG, de Senna V, Shahani AK, Yajnik CS and Shelgikar KM (2003), “A System Modelling Approach for the Care of Diabetic Retinopathy”. European Journal of Operational Research, 150: 81-91.

Vieira IT, Harper PR, Shahani AK and de Senna V (2003), “Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a simulation-based approach for the evaluation of intervention strategies”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 54: 713-722.

Harper PR and Gamlin HM (2003), “Reduced outpatient waiting times with improved appointment scheduling: a simulation modelling approach”. OR Spectrum, 25: 207-222.

Harper PR and Shahani AK (2003), “A Decision Support System for the Care of HIV and AIDS Patients in India”. European Journal of Operational Research. 147 (1): 187-197.

Sayyad, M G, Shahani, A K, Harper, P R, de Senna, V, Shelgikar, K M and Yajnik, C S (2003), “A System Modelling Approach for the Care of Diabetic Retinopathy in India”. Proceedings of the 27th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (Vienna).

de Senna, V, Shahani, A K, Harper, P R and Jones, S K (2003), “Differences Between Breast Cancers Detected Through Screening and Self-detected Cancer (the Length Bias)”. Proceedings of the 27th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (Vienna).

Costa, A.X., Ridely, S.A., Shahani, A.K., Harper, P.R., De Senna, V. and Nielsen, M.S. (2003) Mathematical modelling and simulation for planning critical care capacity. Anaesthesia, 58, (4), 320-327.

Harper PR (2002), “A Framework for Operational Modelling of Hospital Resources”. Health Care Management Science. 5 (3): 165-173.

Harper PR and Shahani AK (2002), “Modelling for the Planning and Management of Bed Capacities in Hospitals”. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 53 (1): 11-18

Shahani, AK, Harper PR, de Senna, V, Vieira, IT and Costa, AX (2002), “Data and Modelling for Critical Care”. Proceedings of the 26th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (Glasgow).

Dale, J, Foden, D, Harper, PR, de Senna, V and Shahani, AK (2000), “Operational Modelling for the Planning and Management of Capacities in Hospitals”. Proceedings of The 7th International Conference on System Science in Health Care (Budapest) 113-117.

Coppini, DV, Gatling, W, Harper, PR, de Senna, V and Shahani, AK (2000), “A System Modelling Approach for the Care of People with Diabetes”. Proceedings of The 7th International Conference on System Science in Health Care (Budapest) 326-333.

Harper, PR (2000), “A Decision Support Hospital Simulation Model”. Proceedings of The International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation (San Diego) 27-31.

Official Reports

Comprehensive Critical Care: Review of Adult Critical Care Services (2000), Department of Health, HMSO Publication.