My research interests include health care management, stochastic modelling, queueing theory and simulation. Prior to my current post as a Lecturer of Operational Research, I gained two years of experience in providing consultancy services to the NHS, working as an embedded mathematical modeller with Aneurin Bevan University Health Board. I still retain a very close link with the NHS and am passionate about bridging the gap between theory and practice. In particular, I am engaged in improving the design of healthcare systems to deal with variations in demand and capacity.

My research interests can be divided into three broad streams:

• Novel statistical and time-series methods that can be applied for interdisciplinary research
• Stochastic modelling for planning and management of healthcare resources
• Crew rostering and shift scheduling algorithms to promote efficient resource allocation

Whilst my is research is primarily focussed on healthcare applications, and I have combined the above three techniques to design a workforce capacity planning tool for the Welsh Ambulance Service Trust (WAST), the research methodologies could equally be applied to other service organisations.

Further details of my research contributions are given below:

Novel statistical and time-series methods that can be applied for interdisciplinary research
Projects I have worked on include forecasting future demand to be exerted on the Welsh Ambulance Service using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), and developing minimal detectable change of common tests used by physiotherapists, with particular application to Huntington’s disease.

Stochastic modelling for planning and management of healthcare resources
Particular areas of impact in this area include the development of approximate and numerical time-dependent queueing theory techniques to enable their application within priority service systems. Recognising that healthcare organisations are often closely scrutinized for the quality of service they provide, and expected to achieve strict targets that ensure given proportions of customers are served within acceptable time frames, I have further presented algorithms that compute the time-dependent waiting time distribution in priority systems,  together with the methodology required to provide  minimum staffing requirements.

Crew rostering and shift scheduling algorithms to promote efficient resource allocation
Common IP solvers are not always capable of providing optimal solutions to complex scheduling and rostering problems. I have contributed to the research in this area by formulating the problems as integer linear programs that may be solved using novel heuristic search techniques, without requiring specialist software. The heuristic algorithms can be embedded within a spreadsheet tool, and used to provide feasible and desirable, though not necessarily optimal, shift schedules and rosters.